疫情重塑汽车保有格局：城市交通政策如何因应？

In August 2020, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio gave blunt advice to residents at a COVID-19 press conference: "Don't buy a car. Cars belong to the past." At that time, according to The New York Times, new car registrations processed in New York State had already increased by 18% compared to the summer of 2019. IHS Markit data showed that nearly 900,000 new vehicles were registered in the New York metropolitan area in 2020; by May 2021, an additional 437,548 registrations had been added, accounting for about 7.5% of total new car registrations nationwide that year.

Meanwhile, ridership on New York's public transit remained sluggish. Daily subway ridership was still less than 50% of pre-pandemic levels (according to MTA daily ridership data). The New York Daily News reported that MTA Chief Financial Officer Bob Foran told the board that if ridership did not fully recover, service could need to be cut by 15% in 2023.

This trend poses a challenge for cities that have long pursued "de-automobilization" policies. Eric Beaton, Deputy Commissioner for Planning and Management at the New York City Department of Transportation, said: "Any increase in car ownership is concerning. New York functions better when it encourages non-motorized travel."

New York is not the only city whose transportation goals have been disrupted by the pandemic. As commutes stopped and crowds were avoided, transit ridership fell and many urban residents turned to private cars. A McKinsey & Company analysis from December 2020 noted that reducing infection risk became the primary factor in consumers' choice of travel mode, outweighing travel time and cost. The analysis suggested this could "maximally boost private car use, but micro-mobility and walking/cycling could also see growth."

David Keith, Assistant Professor of System Dynamics at MIT Sloan School of Management, has long studied car ownership issues, particularly focusing on "why the shared mobility vision has not yet materialized." A study he recently co-authored found that Americans derive significant value from simply owning a car, a feeling that has been especially pronounced over the past 18 months. Keith said: "During the pandemic, the idea of having a car in the driveway, ready to jump in to see a doctor or go to the supermarket, felt very real."

StreetLight Data's analysis of travel trends in cities nationwide shows that despite many offices still being closed, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) rebounded in spring 2021. VMT in March 2021 was nearly 2% higher than in February 2020 and 20% higher than in March 2020 when lockdowns were in effect. Overall, 37 states saw VMT growth in March 2021. Martin Morzynski, the company's Vice President of Marketing, warned: "From a sustainability perspective, if we don't work with businesses, cities, and school districts to prevent everyone from returning to the roads at the same time, we could return to pre-pandemic conditions, or even worse."

Beaton knows well that once New Yorkers buy a private car, it becomes a "sunk cost, and people will use it." Therefore, as the city reopens, he is focused on making car-free travel more attractive, encouraging transit use, or expanding car-sharing opportunities. "The pandemic has been difficult for many people, involving health, safety, and personal choices," he said. "As the problem begins to resolve, we want to offer clean and efficient alternatives."

The "hidden value" of cars

Data released by IHS Markit in May 2021 showed that new light vehicle registrations nationwide reached 1.64 million units in March 2021, a ten-year high. Tom Libby, Associate Director of Automotive Loyalty and Industry Analysis at the company, called the figure "remarkable" in a statement, "because it exceeded any single month during 2015 to 2018, the four highest-volume years in history." Experts caution that these numbers may reflect pent-up demand and supply shortages caused by production constraints in 2020.

Owning a car does not mean using it every day, but the purchase behavior does reflect what Keith calls "hidden value." In a study he co-authored and published in Nature Sustainability in June, researchers surveyed drivers in four U.S. cities and found that people derive value from their cars even when they are idle. Keith said: "We found that Americans value their cars more than the true cost of ownership, including maintenance, insurance, fuel, and the purchase price. Beyond actual usage time, there is substantial value. If I want to go out for ice cream or run an errand, having a car in the driveway—that is value."

Another pandemic-related trend is households moving from cities to suburbs. A StreetLight Data blog post found that people who moved between March and April 2020 relocated to areas that were on average 22% to 33% less dense, a significant increase from the previous year. Morzynski himself moved out of San Francisco, and he said these relocations affect driving habits: "Personally, even though I work remotely, I drive more miles than before. San Francisco is not conducive to driving, but now I go into the city once or twice a week, 45 miles each way."

Redesigning streets

Rafael Prieto Curiel, Professor of Advanced Spatial Analysis at University College London, views urban mobility as a game: "You compete with everyone else in the city to make your trip as fast, cheap, or comfortable as possible." But he points out that what is optimal for an individual driver is not optimal for everyone. In a paper published in July in Royal Society Open Science, he built a mathematical model of urban car use where residents can choose to drive or take transit. When more people in the model switch to driving due to shorter travel times, a paradox emerges: the city experiences the highest congestion levels and the longest commute times. The model found that the best way to reduce commute times afterward is to limit the number of drivers, either through driving restrictions or increased transit use.

Curiel said: "We all selfishly want to minimize our own time, but selfish behavior leads to suboptimal outcomes for the city. The collective system that pushes you to drive is bad. If we want cities to be livable, we shouldn't do this."

Alex Engel, spokesperson for the National Association of City Transportation Officials (NACTO), said there is "a lot of discussion and concern" among members about transportation issues that could arise from the pandemic recovery, especially after cities spent the past decade encouraging sustainable travel through street redesigns and micro-mobility fleets. Early in the pandemic, many streets were designated for pedestrians and cyclists, and restaurants occupied curb space for outdoor dining. As businesses reopen, NACTO is working with cities to make some outdoor spaces permanent; with support from the Bloomberg Philanthropies, the organization distributed $50,000 to each of 10 cities for traffic calming and open streets projects, and will allocate $60,000 more this year. The cycling boom—urban residents snapping up bicycles for travel—is another highlight of pandemic lifestyles.

New York's Beaton said his department accelerated bike lane construction and car-free street protections during the pandemic, with an eye toward permanence. Last summer, New York had 67 miles of open streets under temporary programs, which have been extended into 2021. The city is also testing streets that are transit-only or restrict certain types of traffic, using the pandemic as a testing ground for long-term changes. "We're doing a lot of things in the spirit of permanence," Beaton said. "How do we preserve the truly beneficial parts and make them last? People really want them to work."

"Old habits die hard"

The nonprofit Commute Seattle partners with local businesses and property managers to encourage sustainable transportation policies and benefits, such as transit subsidies or bicycle facilities. Executive Director Kevin Futhey said that before the pandemic, remote work in the city had already increased significantly, although only 6% of workers in the downtown commute survey reported telecommuting. This is a positive signal for reducing peak-hour pressure, and it may persist after the pandemic as more employees and managers become accustomed to working from home.

However, Futhey worries that when Seattle reopens without encouraging transit use, excessive traffic could still occur. According to the 2019 commute survey, transit accounted for 46% of downtown commutes, but it did not grow significantly, while single-occupancy vehicle commutes rose slightly (which Futhey said could be statistical noise). "If employers require workers to return before they are ready to take transit or rail again, there could be a bad situation," he said. "To restore previous ridership, buses would be quite crowded. People might prefer to drive, which would lead to severe congestion."

Futhey is focused on encouraging employers to maintain remote work policies long-term—keeping commuters off the road entirely—or staggering employee arrival times to reduce peak pressure. He said strategies to ease peak pressure could effectively curb driving by improving the commute experience.

Some long-term strategies may be delayed, such as New York's long-awaited congestion pricing (charging vehicles entering Manhattan's central business district). After the plan was stalled by the Trump administration, it may not be implemented until 2022 at the earliest.

But cities can take more direct measures, starting with getting people back on transit. Boston offered 1,000 workers $60 transit credits and bike-share passes. The RTC of Southern Nevada issued free weekly transit passes in May to new or returning workers. The Chicago Transit Authority halved the price of summer day passes. The American Rescue Plan, passed by Congress in March, provided $30.5 billion in emergency funding for transit agencies, helping avoid service cuts and funding programs to restore ridership.

Some agencies are rebuilding networks around their most frequent riders. For example, the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency used pandemic data to identify commute patterns of essential workers, applying an "equity toolkit" based on ridership data from nine neighborhoods to its transit recovery plan, aiming to shorten commute times and increase service for essential workers.

Experts point out that the infrastructure bill under consideration in Congress provides an opportunity for major mobility shifts. The Senate is expected to pass a $1 trillion infrastructure bill, which includes $39 billion for transit and projects to reconnect divided communities through street redesigns and highway removals (the bill also includes $110 billion for roads, bridges, and highways). Democrats hope to push another $3.5 trillion package, where climate spending could include more sustainable transportation funding.

StreetLight's Morzynski said that using these funds to reverse pandemic-era driving trends requires a coordinated effort among city officials, planners, and businesses. Otherwise, "human nature" may keep people in their cars. "Old habits die hard," he said. "If we get these funds, we need to provide infrastructure suited to the present, not return to the planning of ten years ago."